As usual, there are plenty of supposed ‘bankers’ going into his year’s Festival, but punters thinking of lumping on would be advised to take a more selective approach.
Punters backing all those horses returned at a starting price of 2/1 or shorter at last year’s festival, would have had a miserable time. Both Sizing Europe (2/1) and Ashkazar (15/8) were turned over on the opening day, with Franchoek (Evens) and Kauto Star (10/11) biting the dust on Friday. Only Inglis Drever (11/8) would have provided some welcome relief on Thursday. So, if your list of potential festival wagers includes all of the below five, I would suggest you think again.
Champion Hurdle: Binocular (6/4 bet365)
Favourite for this on the back of two impressive wins this season, but he beat trees on his reappearance at Haydock and his success in the rearranged Boylesports at Ascot owed much to the fact that his five rivals all ran below form. He’s going to have much more on his plate at Cheltenham and, after he stopped quickly close home in last year’s Supreme Novices’ on sticky ground, it remains to be seen whether the track, especially if there’s rain around, will bring out the best of him.
Verdict – Blowout (especially if there’s bad weather)
Ryanair Chase: Voy Por Ustedes (11/10 Paddy Power)
Loves Cheltenham, having not finished out of the first two in four attempts, three of which were at the festival – won the 2006 Arkle and the 2007 Champion Chase. Both of those races were over 2m but he looks a much better horse over this sort of trip (2m5f) these days and he was awesome when thrashing Gwanako in the Betfair Chase last time. On that form, he has a fair amount in hand over his rivals and, as he’s not ground dependant, he looks a certainty to run his race.
Verdict - Banker
World Hurdle: Kasbah Bliss (5/4 Coral)
Pulled seven lengths clear of the remainder, and gave Inglis Drever a real fright, when runner-up in last year’s race and was most impressive on his return at Haydock in February, winning with any amount in hand. Has been specifically trained for the World Hurdle by his astute handler Francois Doumen, who should know a thing or two about winning this race, having trained the great Baracouda. Miles ahead of his nearest rivals Punchestowns and Big Buck’s on the ratings.
Verdict - Banker
Champion Chase: Master Minded (1/3 William Hill)
Produced one of the ‘wow’ moments of last year’s festival when demolishing his rivals by 19 lengths and has looked bombproof in his two races this season – but who wants to back a 1/3 shot?
Verdict – Banker
Gold Cup: Kauto Star (2/1 Victor Chandler)
Of this quintet, he looks the worse value at his current odds and will surely be a bigger price on the day, especially if the forecast rain materialises and turns the Cheltenham going soft. Of course, a repeat of his eight-length drubbing of Albertas Run in the King George will make him hard to beat and he’ll go into this year’s renewal a fresher horse than last year when he was past his best. However, the suspicion remains that he’s better going right-handed these days and a sticky surface could test him further in his bid to become the first horse ever to regain the Gold Cup.
Verdict - Blowout (especially if the ground is genuinely soft)
