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Cheltenham Festival tips - The five best bets of the week

Hurricane Fly could be Ireland's best chance of a victory at the Cheltenham Festival. (credit: Bettingpro.com)
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The excitement ahead of next week's Cheltenham Festival is beginning to reach fever pitch and almost all of the nation’s leading bookies are now non runner, no bet on all the races at Prestbury Park.

The news means that punters can pile into their selections safe in the knowledge that the bookies are ready to refund if you are unlucky enough to see your selection pulled from the four-day extravaganza.

Cheltenham can expect to welcome over 200,000 racegoers from all over the world next week and it’s believed that more than £500 million will be gambled throughout the meeting, with bookies like Paddy Power luring punters in with some of their incredible new offers. Nick Wilby takes a look at the action and gives you his five best bets for the greatest race meeting on the planet.

Cheltenhampro and Ladbrokes are giving punters the chance to celebrate St Patrick’s Day in style with 4 x 5 free tickets to the biggest party this side of the Irish Sea.  Win tickets to Ladbrokes World hurdle day by entering our competition here.

3.20 Tuesday - Stan James Champion Hurdle 

This year’s Champion Hurdle looks set to be a vintage renewal of the famous race and the four market leaders have dominated the ante post betting for some time.

Reigning champion Binocular will return to Cheltenham to defend his crown after he powered to a particularly impressive victory in the race last year and he has followed a similar path to the meeting in 2011.  After fluffing his lines in the Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross, there were no surprises when Nicky Henderson’s star bounced back to form in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.  All his greatest assets were on display in an impeccable display of accurate jumping that day and he was kept ticking over with an unimpressive but facile success at Sandown last time out.  He must have a very strong chance of rewarding favourite backers with his second victory at his fourth consecutive Festival.

That being said, however impressive Binocular can be on his day, the thousands of Irish punters descending on Prestbury Park will be confident that Willie Mullins’ Hurricane Fly can fly their flag and secure his status as their best hurdler since the mighty Istabraq.

It will be the first time Mullins has managed to get his hugely talented but equally fragile superstar to the Festival and many will regard that as a triumph in itself.  With seven victories in eight Grade Ones in Ireland Hurricane Fly has won his last four races, pummelling classy hurdler Solwhit each time.  

His latest victory and most impressive performance came in the Irish Champion Hurdle and Hurricane Fly seemed to answer almost every question, turning in a near-faultless round to win easily. Jumping to his right at some obstacles (something his trainer believes would only happen in a small field) the son of Montjeu came to the last flight swinging on the bridle before quickening and disposing of Solwhit with consummate ease.

Sceptics will argue that the form doesn’t stack up but those who dismiss Hurricane Fly’s chances will need reminding that Solwhit is a multiple Grade One winner who was favourite for last year’s Champion Hurdle for some time.  It would be easy for form students to say that Binocular beat Solwhit by eighteen lengths at Cheltenham but the latter wasn’t right that day and he remains a seriously difficult horse to pass.

What most people will agree on is that Hurricane Fly has everything you would want to see in a Champion Hurdle contender.  His jumping is near faultless when he is concentrating on the task and he has enough speed to keep himself in a race should he make an early mistake.  His slick jumping and his ability to cruise into a challenging position before knuckling down to the task are a potent mix and he has proved that he doesn’t mind getting in a battle to the line.

Binocular has made a habit of slipping away from his rivals and using his speed to put his races to bed, but he could find that move is impossible with Hurricane Fly in the field and the latter’s change of gears could make him very hard to shake off approaching the last.

With the likes of Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Dunguib also taking their chance in an enthralling looking renewal of the opening day feature, the challenge to Hurricane Fly looks formidable.   However the faster pace and better ground at Cheltenham are certain to suit his  breathtaking acceleration and with his slick jumping, ability to stay and his desire to get his head in front, the French import has all the necessary ingredients to finally prove he is the best hurdler on both sides of the Irish Sea.

Nick Wilby's selection - Hurricane Fly 11/2 (NAP) (Ladbrokes)

2.05 Wednesday - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle is always a high class affair and three superstars have emerged from the last three renewals of the race.

Last year’s winner Peddlers Cross heads into Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle with a serious chance of adding another Cheltenham Festival success to his CV and he is proof that speed, stamina and slick jumping are all essential attributes required to win the novices’ showpiece.

In 2008 and 2009 Irish trainer Willie Mullins won the race with Fiveforthree and Mikael D’Haguenet and it looks like the handler has unearthed another unexposed gem set to take his chance in the Grade One.

French import So Young is exactly the type of horse Mullins does so well with and the five-year-old has powered onto the novice scene with two mightily impressive successes in Ireland this season.

A sixteen length romp in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown confirmed that the three-time winner on the flat was more than capable of becoming a high class operator over obstacles and he looked a superstar in waiting when he powered to another scintillating victory at Punchestown in February.

Racing up with the pace and jumping impressively and economically, So Young raced keenly at a steady pace before putting the race to bed with incredible ease.  Sauntering past Big Game Hunter in second, So Young showed a breathtaking change of pace to wrap the race up and he was immediately cut for both the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Neptune Investment.

At a recent Cheltenham preview night, jockey Davy Russel said that Paul Townend has been telling everyone that So Young was an absolute superstar and that he’d never sat on one like him before.  That was certainly high praise from a jockey that has partnered the likes of Hurricane Fly to multiple successes in Ireland and it could be that Mullins’ youngster is ready to justify the high regard he is held in at Prestbury Park on Wednesday week.

So Young’s inexperience must be of some concern and he will be facing battle-hardened horses that have already done it at Cheltenham in the shape of Bobs Worth and Rock On Ruby.  However there is a feeling in Ireland that their raider is the real deal and he could hold the aces over the English form.

Mullins is also bound to have a clue how good a horse needs to be to beat Oscars Well, ante post favourite for the race, after the Deloitte winner hammered So Young’s stablemate Zaidpour at Leopardstown in February.

Nick Wilby's selection - So Young 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.20 Thursday - Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase

Next week's Cheltenham Festival represents another year and another Champion Chase that looks set to be dominated by the presence of legendary chaser Master Minded.

Paul Nicholls’ superstar put up one of the greatest performances of all time when he cruised to success in the race in 2008 and he returned to defend his crown, not quite as emphatically, in 2009. 

At just seven-years-old, he was sent off at 4/5 for last year’s renewal of the two mile feature but the wheels came off on the back of a couple of unconvincing performances.  A victim of his own success in 2008 there were many punters left wondering whether he would ever bounce back to the form that saw him deliver one of Cheltenham’s most memorable victories and he was whisked away for a breathing operation last summer.

Luckily for his fans his rehabilitation looks to have gone sensationally well and he has returned to action this season with two breathtaking victories at Ascot and Cheltenham.  A sixteen length dismissal of I’msingingtheblues in the Amlin 1965 Chase followed by an eight length victory over Petit Robin in the Tingle Creek looked to have silenced his doubters and he seemed to be back to his very best.

However, the mandatory queue of layers looking to get Master Minded turned over at the Festival were quick to jump on the horse’s back after he and Tony McCoy were forced to fight bravely to hold off the challenge of Somersby in a short-head thrilling finish to the Victor Chandler Chase in January.

That result proved considerably more difficult than many envisaged and McCoy was quick to take the blame for nearly engineering the chaser’s downfall.  Whoever’s fault it was Master Minded once again lost the aura of invincibility that surrounds him but trainer Paul Nicholls will not be too upset about having some of the pressure taken off his shoulders.

It must be remembered that there are plenty of emerging talents among his opponents and if the ground were to come up good then defending champion Big Zeb could be mightily hard to beat.  There is no getting away from the fact that all Master Minded’s recent victories have been on good-soft ground or softer and if he doesn’t get his way with the forecast, aside from Big Zeb, there is also the likes of Sizing Europe, Golden Silver and Somersby that could all capitalise on the dual Champion Chaser’s misfortune.

However, it would be foolish to forget that Master Minded is the best horse in the race and his electrifying jumping has been foot-perfect this season.  He looks to be oozing all the class that has seen him dominate the two mile division for the last four years and his supporters are set to be rewarded at relatively generous odds.

Nick Wilby's selection - Master Minded 3/1 (William Hill)

1.30 Thursday - Jewson Novices’ Chase

The Jewson Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on Thursday looks a typically competitive renewal and the winner of the race is sure to have a very bright future in the chasing division.

The current market leader for the race is Philip Hobbs’ Wishfull Thinking who leaped to the head of the market with an impressive success in the Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham in January.  That was a good performance and it will be some of the best form on offer when the tape goes up in the Jewson.

However, go back two runs and watch Wishfull Thinking’s victory in the Rising Stars at Wincanton and his followers will be left wondering how he managed to get away with a victory after Paul Nicholls’ Robinson Collonges seemed to throw the race away when falling three from home.

Galloping all over Wishfull Thinking and giving him 6lbs in the process, Robinson Collonges slipped on the landing side of the fence and it wasn’t a jumping error that seemed to cost him, but more a highly misfortunate stumble.  In fact, his jumping had been sure-footed for a novice and jockey Nick Scholfield will tell you that he jumped the fence well before losing his legs.  

While it can be foolish to say that a horse would have won if he hadn’t have fallen, it seemed for all the world that Robinson Collonges was set to cruise to a facile success and he looks a seriously talented chaser in the making.

After winning as easily as he liked at Hereford at 1/10 on his next start, he was sent to tackle an incredibly competitive looking Vote A.P. Gold Cup.  Running off a lofty mark of 148 against his elders, Robinson Collonges travelled into contention down the hill before he made a mistake and met with trouble.  After that, Noel Fehily nurtured him home without ever giving him a hard time and he has been off the track since.

Nicholls does not seem worried by the fact Robinson Collonges hasn’t had a recent run and explained earlier in the week:  “He is very much a forgotten horse. I see Wishfull Thinking is one of the favourites for the Jewson but don't forget that Robinson Collonges would have probably beaten him in the Rising Stars at Wincanton in February and we were giving him 6lb that day; we go for the Jewson and he has come back well.”

With the likes of Captain Chris, Noble Prince and Mr Gardner also in contention for the race it is sure to be a thoroughly intriguing contest, however, we certainly haven’t seen the best of Robinson Collonges and he remains a truly exciting prospect.  Odds of 12/1 do not do the horse justice and if he’d have won the Rising Stars giving Wishfull Thinking 6lbs he would be a very short price in the ante post betting for Thursday week.  With better ground certain to suit the selection and with a return to novice company on the cards, Robinson Collonges is a very attractive bet indeed.

Nick Wilby's selection - Robinson Collonges 12/1 (Sky Bet)

2.05 Tuesday - Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy

One of the highlights on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Arkle Trophy and trainer Alan King looks to hold the aces in a race he won in 2006 and 2007.

King and jockey Choc Thronton scored in the race with Voy Por Ustedes (2006) and My Way de Solzen (2007) and they could be on the verge of landing a hat-trick of victories with classy hurdle recruit Medermit.

The 3/1 market leader has been on an upward curve ever since he took the larger obstacles and his latest victory in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown was proof that he is ready to mix it with the best chasers in the business.

The grey seven-year-old has won three of his five starts over fences and he looks to posses all the speed and stamina required to win the two-mile showpiece.  The decision to tackle the Arkle looks to be a shrewd one with the distance looking right up Medermit’s street and after looking slightly ‘novicey’ when he first went chasing, his jumping now looks assured.

It is worth noting that Medermit is the only horse at the forefront of the market that is yet to surpass his high hurdles rating over fences and with more to come from King’s stable star, he could be seriously difficult to beat at Prestbury Park.  His trainer is bullish about the superstar’s chances and he had no problems revealing that he believed he was his best chance at the Festival.

If Medermit blows his chance in a far from vintage renewal of the race, Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow could be the horse to capitalize, though his jumping will have to improve if he is going to negotiate two miles around Cheltenham and Paul Nicholls’ Ghizao will have plenty of followers after an impressive season under the guidance of his legendary trainer.

Nick Wilby’s selection - Medermit 3/1 (Paddy Power)

 


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