The Paddy Power Gold Cup run in November has been a good guide to Saturday's December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (due off at 2.30pm).
Last season, five of the first seven home in the the Paddy Power made the first six in a race then known as the Vote AP Gold Cup, including the winner Poquelin, who had finished fifth a month earlier. His owner Andy Stewart is sponsoring this year's race (now officially the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup), so will be keen to take first prize again and he has three chances with Ghizao, Tatenen and Nomecheki, none of whom ran in the Paddy Power. Of these, Ghizao looks to be his best hope but he's going to have to run a lot better than he did at Exeter on his reappearance, when making several jumping errors (not for the first time), and he does have his stamina for this 2m5f trip to prove too.
This valuable prize, therefore, looks destined for a new owner and it could well be David Johnson, whose Great Endeavour is bidding to become only the fourth horse to win the Paddy Power and this race in the same season, a feat considered to be an 8/1 shot. An impressive winner at Cheltenham, the seven-year-old has since run fourth in the Hennessy, where he found the 3m2f trip beyond him, and will be suited by the drop back in distance, although he faces all the placed horses from four weeks ago on worse terms, having gone up 10lb in the ratings.
That gives the seven length runner-up Quantitativeeasing a chance, in theory, of reversing the form and the Nicky Henderson-trained chaser is favourite with most firms at a top price of 7/1. However, with ground conditions currently 'good, good to firm in places' and no appreciable rain forecast, this soft ground performer could struggle to reproduce that level of form and it's no given either that he will beat the Paddy Power third Divers on 3lb worse terms. The latter is an 8/1 chance and he won't mind the ground one bit so he could emulate 2004 winner Monkerhostin, who had finished third a month earlier.
However, I'm going to take a chance on a potential improver at the foot of the weights in the shape of the ex-French SALUT FLO, who is trained like Great Endeavour by David Pipe. He's been absent from the track since finishing second in a valuable race at Haydock 616 days ago but the stable's runners rarely fail through lack of fitness, especially in these big handicaps, and he was successful on his first start for Pipe when a wide-margin winner at Doncaster. With just those two British runs under his belt, it's safe to say he's unexposed and open to improvement, although the trip is a slight unknown as both his runs have been over 2m. The good ground will help in that respect, though, and with talented conditional Conor O'Farrell taking 3lb off his back, he looks capable of a big run.
In a race of this nature, it doesn't hurt to have a couple running for you and the similarly lightly-weighted ROUDOUDOU VILLE looks worthy of support at 14/1. A good ground bumper winner when trained in France, he has progressed nicely since joining Victor Dartnall and his record since undergoing a wind operation last winter now stands at three from four. He was particularly impressive at Sandown on his reappearance when lumping 11st12lb to a comfy four-length success over Midnight Appeal and, while this race is much tougher, he's definitely going the right way. His trainer landed a big handicap with Exmoor Ranger recently and this one is a better jumper.
Recommended Bets:-
Salut Flo 1pt @ 16/1
Roudoudou Ville 1pt @ 14/1
