The Ladbroke is one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season and Saturday's renewal at Ascot (due off 3.35pm) looks no exception.
That said, the betting does have a slightly one-sided look to it with bookmakers unanimous in making the Paul Nicholls-trained Prospect Wells favourite at around 7/2, with a big gap to the next horse in the betting, Gibb River at 8/1. Clearly, layers are not taking any chances with the Graham Wylie-owned six year-old, a winner of two of his three starts over hurdles, and the presence of Ruby Walsh in the saddle will ensure they see plenty of takers at that price. However, he's still technically a novice and this race may come too soon, while his handicap mark of 142 seems plenty high enough given what he's achieved on the race track. The presence of his stablemate Brampour at the head of the weights helps his cause as he can carry just 10st 9lb here, but he's hardly a plot horse and I'm inclined to take him on at the price.
Two starts back, he was beaten a neck by Steps Of Freedom, who was giving him 3lb, and that formline suggests he will struggle to beat Sailors Warn, who was giving Steps Of Freedom 9lb when finishing a length and a quarter second to that horse at Punchestown in October. With Sailors Warn priced at 10/1, I don't need to tell you where the value lies and the booking of Tony McCoy suggests that connections mean business, although the four-year-old would be the first winner of this race from that age group. They've had their share of placings but, with no winner on the board, it's goes against the grain to back one, and that means we also have to put a line through Abergavenny, Rigidity, Rajdhani Express, Marsh Warbler, Tonic Mellysse and Brampour.
Five-year-olds, on the other hand, have fared best and the one I like most is RAYA STAR, who is trained by the in-form Alan King. Like all bar one of the last eight winners, he was running in novice company last season, winning at Doncaster in February, and he's shown gradual improvement this season, winning on the second of his three starts at Wetherby. His best performance, however, came in defeat last time out in a Listed race at Newbury, when finishing third to a couple of well-handicapped and progressive horses in Rock on Ruby and Empire Lavant. The winner is now being aimed at the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the runner-up had previously dotted up in a handicap by 29 lengths just two days earlier, so the form has a rock solid look, and there was a big gap to the fourth horse.
There is almost certainly more to come from Raya Star and, having yet to fully show his hand to the handicapper, he lines up here with just 10st 1lb on his back. Also in his favour is the fact he acts with plenty of cut in the ground, which looks sure to be the case at Ascot given all the rain we've had this week, and there are no doubts about his stamina for what is sure to be a strongly run 2m as he has form over further. With the stable banging in the winners of late, everything is in place for a big run and he's a nice price too, with 11/1 still on offer. Recent Saturdays have seen bookmakers falling over themselves to attract our money, so I would suggest having a bit on now at the 11/1 and then backing him again on the morning of the race, when he might be a shade bigger.
There are plenty of dangers lurking in what is a fiercely competitive race and I've got most respect for Gibb River. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who has won three of the last seven renewals, he won his first three races as a novice last season before finishing down the field in a particularly hot renewal of the Supreme Novices', and prepped for this race when finishing a close third to Ubi Ace at Sandown on his reappearance. It's hard to imagine him being out of the frame but I'm sticking with Raya Star, who can make the most of the weight he receives.
Recommended Bet:-
Raya Star 1pt each-way @ 11/1
