With nothing that's been seen in Britain yet this season really setting the heather alight , we reckon that the key to this year's Arkle may lie on the other side of the Irish Sea.
Perhaps we're expecting too much of the championship events at the Festival these days, but our feeling is that current ante-post Arkle favourite Ghizao 7.0 is there to be shot at. Paul Nicholls' gelding has clearly thrived for the switch to fences, with wins in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham and a competitive event at Newbury on his last two starts, beating Captain Chris 26.0 on both occasions. However, that rival has had his problems (reported to have undergone a breathing operation after his reappearance) and was rather let down by his jumping in the later stages at Newbury, so just what Ghizao has achieved in dismissing him is up for question. All in all, Ghizao's current price makes little appeal almost ten weeks in advance of the race itself.
Normally the 'nearly men' among last season's hurdlers make up a significant proportion of the Arkle market at this stage, but this time around only Medermit 17.0 and Finian's Rainbow 7.6 really fall into that category. With Celestial Halo's chasing career aborted, Medermit will probably be the highest-rated hurdler sent over fences this season, but it's fast looking as though Alan King's grey may not prove as proficient as he was over timber; a refusal at Huntingdon was sandwiched between two wins in everyday novices before he came off second-best to Hell's Bay stepped up in trip for the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham last time.
Although he's come up short on both tries in Grade 1s so far, Finian's Rainbow is a much more interesting contender. Both of those defeats came over twenty-one furlongs, a trip which is likely to prove a maximum for the Nicky Henderson-trained gelding, while his physique promises he'll make an even better chaser, something he appeared to prove on his debut over fences when making short work of Hell's Bay over seventeen furlongs at Newbury. It would be no surprise to see Finian's Rainbow develop into Britain's leading Arkle candidate, but as much is pretty well factored into his price already.
So what of the Irish challenge? The picture has started to take shape in recent weeks, with two Grade 1s in December at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown. Jessies Dream took the Drinmore at Fairyhouse over two and a half miles and, in the context of this article, whether or not he was fortunate that Mikael d'Haguenet fell when going much better at the last is a moot point, as Jessies Dream's Festival target is reportedly the RSA Chase.
Mikael d'Haguenet 24.0, who looked a top-notch prospect over hurdles in 2008/9 before he missed last season through injury, was sent off a hot favourite at Leopardstown but, perhaps understandably given the absence that preceded it, seemed not to be over his Fairyhouse exertions fifteen days previously.
Instead, it was left to Drinmore runner-up Realt Dubh to pick up the pieces, two miles clearly a more suitable trip for him as he stayed on powerfully after the last to win by five lengths from Noble Prince. The last-fence exit of narrow leader Saludos muddies the water slightly, but Realt Dubh clearly put up a smart performance, one of the best seen on either side of the Irish Sea by a two-mile novice this season. As such, we think the 26.0 currently on offer is more than fair and that it may well evaporate after his intended next target, namely the Irish Arkle later this month.
In summation, there probably aren't any superstars hiding in this year's Arkle field (with the possible exception of Finian's Rainbow and Mikael d'Haguenet) and, with that considered, we think that the form in the book already boasted by Realt Dubh, who will likely relish the stiff two miles at Cheltenham, allows a compelling case to be made for Noel Meade's gelding at current odds.
