When the tapes go up for the Supreme Novice Hurdle you will hear one of the biggest cheers of the four days at the Cheltenham Festival.
Menorah went some way to ending the Irish dominance in the Supreme Novice Hurdle when sinking Dunguib last March, and Cue Card, who also tasted success at the 2010 Festival when running away with the Champion Bumper, is currently favourite to become just the fourth British-trained winner of the Festival curtain-raiser since the turn of the Millennium.
Colin Tizzard's stable star has already achieved a level of form that would have seen him win just about every running of the Supreme since Hors La Loi in 1999 and certainly justifies his position at the head of the market. An impressive winner of his first two starts over hurdles, Cue Card then acquitted himself most admirably when pitched in at the deep end for the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, unsuited by the steady gallop but still finding only the aforementioned Menorah too good. However, with connections still mulling over a potential Champion Hurdle bid, Cue Card makes little ante-post appeal.
The Willie Mullins-trained Zaidpour could well be this year's 'Irish banker' should Cue Card go for the Champion, and there looks to have been an overreaction to his recent defeat at the hands of First Lieutenant in a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown.
Zaidpour may not have been able to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles, but he did still shape as if the best horse in the race, staying on strongly when eventually asked for maximum effort after the last and beaten only a neck. Zaidpour remains an exciting prospect and is well worth another chance to build on the excellent impression he made when running out a facile winner of the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse the previous month. Zaidpour himself also has another Festival option, having already won over the 2½m trip of the Baring Bingham, but the Supreme could be the race for him and he will be considerably shorter than the 9.0 currently on offer should Cue Card go down the Champion Hurdle route.
Paul Nicholls is, unsurprisingly, responsible for several of those towards the head of the market, the most prominent of which is Toubab. The ex-French gelding reportedly took a while to acclimatise in Britain but has progressed well since, finishing fourth in a strong renewal of the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock before running out a very easy winner of a listed novice event there in November. HIs latest run, when third to Minella Class (we'll come back to him) in the Tolworth at Sandown, is easily excused on account of the ground, but whilst he's open to further improvement, his form is still by some way inferior to that of Zaidpour's.
Sam Winner and Rock On Ruby are the other Nicholls representatives prominent in the betting, but with the former (who was turned over in the Finale Juvenile at Chepstow) more likely to go for the Triumph hurdle and the latter the Neptune, neither can be considered as ante-post selections at this point.
Gary Moore's Megastar enjoyed an excellent campaign in bumpers last term, scoring at Sandown on debut and confirming the promise of his fifth to Cue Card in March when beating Dare Me in the Grade 2 at Aintree's Grand National meeting. Megastar has already made an encouraging start over hurdles, landing the odds in ready fashion on his debut at Ascot before finishing runner-up on each of his subsequent outings, chasing home Rock On Ruby in the fog at Newbury and then unsuited by the steady gallop when behind Minella Class in the Tolworth at Sandown (reportedly returned with cuts to his legs). Megastar remains a bright prospect over hurdles and his current price of 26.0 may underestimate his chance given a strong gallop over 2m is certain to play to his strengths.
Nicky Henderson's Minella Class was shortened to 20.0 on the back of that win in the Tolworth and is now two from two for a yard he joined from Irish-trainer Trevor Horgan in April. The son of Oscar was more at home on the testing conditions than his four rivals at Sandown and, whilst he finished seven lengths clear of Megastar on that occasion, he wouldn't be sure to confirm that form given the likelihood of very different conditions at Cheltenham in March.
Other than Zaidpour, the Irish challenge looks set to consist of Dermot Weld's Hidden Universe and Edward O'Grady's Shot From The Hip. Hidden Universe made up for disappointing in the Champion bumper at the Festival by going on to win each of his two subsequent starts last season, including a Grade 1 event at Punchestown in April, and made a really encouraging start over hurdles when running out a very easy winner of a maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, the tendency he showed to jump away to his right there would be a definite concern around Cheltenham.
Shot From The Hip has always been held in high regard, sent off a well-backed favourite for last season's Cheltenham Champion bumper on the back of easy wins on his first two starts, and though he finished well beaten, he got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles when accounting for Hidden Universe's stablemate Endless Intrigue in a steadily-run maiden at Leopardstown. That form leaves him with a great deal to find with the principals and current odds of 48.0 appear a fair reflection of the chance he holds.
In summary, the whole race depends, from an ante-post perspective, on which route connections go down with Cue Card. We have already put up Zaidpour as a selection in the Baring Bingham, but he's also worth backing for the Supreme so we have all bases covered, the promise he's shown far outweighing the fact that he was turned over at short odds last time.
