With four of the last six winners returning at double-figure odds, finding the winner of the Champion Hurdle seems to get harder and harder, and this year's renewal is no exception.
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This year there is no outstanding candidate, and it can be argued that the current favourite Zaynar is there on potential rather than ability. The unbeaten five-year-old could not have been more impressive in posting two wins at Ascot and Cheltenham this season, and the form of his Triumph Hurdle win could not have worked out better with seven of the first nine home winning since. He does lack experience, though, with just six runs over hurdles to date.
He's also prone to running lazily and can hit a flat spot during his races, so there is a good chance his jockey will have to get serious with him from an early stage against what are the speediest hurdlers around. In which case, he could drift out to a much bigger price in-running than his current best ante-post odds of 7/1 (bet365). Connections are thinking of re-fitting the cheekpieces he wore when winning the Triumph, which might help to set him alight, and there won't be many finishing better than him as we know he stays further. However, 7/1 at this stage makes no appeal and I'd much rather wait for the in-running action before getting involved.
His trainer Nicky Henderson trains of the other six horses in the betting, including last year's winner Punjabi (8/1 Sportingbet), That doesn't look a bad price for a horse who has been there and sports the t-shirt, but I have my doubts over the the form of his Cheltenham win with few horses coming out of that race to advertise the form. Of the first 11 home, only runner-up Celestial Halo (12/1 Blue Square) has won over hurdles since and that wasn't much of a race at Wincanton, while the third home, Binocular (12/1 Stan James), has been particularly disappointing this term coming up short on two occasions.
In comparison, the form of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle looks strong with the first and third - Go Native (3/1 Coral) and Somersby - having franked the form in great style. Go Native has won two British Grade 1 races this season, including a narrow win in the Christmas Hurdle last time, while Somersby is amongst the market leaders for the Arkle, having beaten Champion Hurdle fourth Crack Away Jack by the same amount Punjabi did over fences at Sandown.
That would appear to give Go Native a great chance and he thoroughly deserves to be where he is in the market. However, I have my doubts about him sustaining his run up the Cheltenham hill. I know he won there last season but if you watch a video of the race he went from winning easily to just scrambling home and, while he probably hit the front too soon for a horse who is definitely played best late, I'm loathe to back him now at such a skinny price.
Going back to the Supreme, the interesting horse to take out of the race is the runner-up, MEDERMIT. He has run two solid races since, finishing third to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood Hurdle, giving weight to all bar one of his 14 rivals, and third again behind the same horse in the International Hurdle last month. He might not be quite up to this class but he can be backed at 7/1 (Paddy Power).
As for Khyber Kim (9/1 Sportingbet), he would surely be favourite for the Champion Hurdle were he trained by Paul Nicholls or owned by JP McManus. He's twice won around Cheltenham this season and on that evidence looks cured of the injury problems which have plagued him in the past. The doubt with him is whether he will arrive at Cheltenham in the same sort of form.
One obvious candidate I haven't mentioned yet is Solwhit, who beat Punjabi at Punchestown and Celestial Halo at Aintree last season, and Sublimity at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has plenty going for him not least the fact he stays further than two miles, which is never a bad thing in this race. Still, he's plenty short enough now at 5/1 (William Hill) and he does need plenty of juice in the ground to operate at his best, which is never a given at Prestbury Park in March.
The more I look at this race the tougher it gets to solve, but I will stick with a small ante-post punt on Medermit for now and will have my finger hovering over the back button next to Zaynar once the race gets under way
Recommended Bets:
Medermit 1pt each-way @ 7/1 Paddy Power (already advised at 33/1)
Zaynar (back in-running)
