Rite Of Passage, a beaten favourite on his big day here last year (third to Dunguib in the Champion Bumper), heads the market for this year's Neptune Novices' Hurdle (2.05) over 2m5f.
The Favourite
Last year's Bumper form is looking even better now and Rite Of Passage has since made a seamless transition to hurdling with two impressive victories at Leopardstown and Punchestown. The latter track would have been too tight for him but he still won on the bridle from a decent horse in Healys Bar. In between, he won a big handicap on the flat and his trainer Dermot Weld is planing another flat campaign this year - don't be surprised to see him turn up in the Melbourne Cup, a race Weld has won twice already. Granted, the trainer hasn't had much success at the festival - Rare Holiday was his last winner 20 years ago - but he does well with his limited jumping recruits and rates this horse very highly. He goes in the soft but good ground wouldn't be a problem at all as it will bring his flat speed into play. A worthy favourite at 7/2 (William Hill).
The Dangers
Quel Esprit, fourth in last season's bumper, has been well-backed for this recently (now a best-priced 9/2 with Paddy Power) and it's no secret that his trainer Willie Mullins fancies him strongly, and he should know what it takes to win the race as he's won the last two renewals with Fiveforthree and Mikael D'Haguenet, who was backed off the boards last year down to 5/2. He certainly looked the part when winning in the mud at Cork and Punchestown, so it was disappointing to see him beaten on his next start when dropping back to 2m4f at Leopardstown (at odds of 30-100). His backers will have to forgive him that run and will point to the stronger pace at Cheltenham being in his favour.
The home challenge is headed by Nicky Henderson's Finian's Rainbow (7/1 Ladbrokes), an easy winner at Ascot on his latest start. That wasn't much of a race, though, and he is better judged on his third to Reve De Sivola (12/1 general) in the Challow Hurdle at the end of December. Connections of Peddlers Cross (8/1 general) were originally going to run in the Supreme over 2m but have decided to swerve Dunguib and try him at this longer trip. If he stays, he has a big chance but the speed and exuberance he showed when winning the Rossington Main Hurdle raises doubts about him getting home.
Jessica Harrington's Summit Meeting is an interesting runner as she rarely brings one over unless she thinks it has a real chance. Superbly bred and an easy winner last time, despite being in need of the run, he falls into the 'could be anything' category and it's no surprise he has been well-backed into 16/1 (Stan James).
Longshot
This has been a good race for fancied horses with seven of the last 10 winners coming from the first four in the betting, and it's hard to see past those already mentioned for the winner. That said, last season's Bumper runner-up Some Present could run well a a price (40/1 Totesport). He has been running well on deep winter ground in Ireland and will appreciate the drying conditions.
Key Stat
The last 10 winners were aged either five or six so the seven-year-old Finian's Rainbow will have to buck a strong trend.
Verdict
I'm a paid up member of the RITE OF PASAGE fan club and have already backed him at 11/2. I was feeling supremely confident until all the money came for Quel Esprit in the last week and even considered a saver on the Mullins horse. However, news that the Old Course (used on the first two days) won't be watered again before the meeting makes me think the ground will be genuinely good by the Wednesday and that has to suit ROP horse more. Quel Esprit's forte is his stamina and he was being considered for the Albert Bartlett over 3m, a trip he has already won over. Over 2m5f, he might just be tapped for toe and if ROP drifts to 4/1, I will be going in again. I suggest you join me.