Last year's Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe returns to defend his crown with even stronger credentials than 12 months ago.
Is he as good this year?
At least as good, based on his two starts over 2m this season - a win over 3m proved beyond him when outstayed by Quito De La Roque at Down Royal in November. Granted, it wasn't the greatest renewal of the Tingle Creek Chase he won in December, but he was imperious in dishing out an eight-length beating to the re-opposing Kauto Stone, and his performance when beating his main rival Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage last time was another rock solid display. Back at Cheltenham, where has won both his chase starts (the other being the 2010 Arkle), and on his favoured good ground, he is going to be devilishly hard to beat.
So what of the opposition?
What opposition? He's already wiped the floor with most of them and while Big Zeb should make more of a race of it on better ground, he's hardly getting any better at the age of 11 and is still prone to missing the odd fence out. The 2010 Champion Chase winner is still the second best horse in the race according to the ratings, but the feeling is that something will improve past him, with the most likely candidate being Finian's Rainbow. The Nicky Henderson-trained chaser was a high class novice and has never been out of the first two over fences, but was easily brushed aside by Captain Chris in last season's Arkle and has given the impression that he will be suited by a much stiffer test in time - the fact Henderson entered him in the Gold Cup suggests he's of that opinion too.
It's 16/1 bar the front three in the betting, which brings in Wishfull Thinking, who is impossible to fancy on what he has shown this season, and Kauto Stone, who has a mountain to climb on Sandown form. Realt Dubh has a touch of class but has not been seen since finishing second to Captain Chris at Punchestown last May, while Gauvain is either brilliant or terrible, although he did win easily over course and distance in November.
What's the verdict?
Providing he settles into a good rhythm, I'd expect SIZING EUROPE to win and win well. Sadly, he will be nowhere near the 8/1 he was 12 months ago and we may have to take odds-on this time, with Paddy Power's 10/11 the best on offer at the time of writing. That said, he might even be value at that price given what he has to beat and I have him closer to 1/2 than evens. It might be too much to expect him to be available at the latter price on the day but it's not impossible given the bookmakers' price war that is bound to ensue this week, and he'd be a maximum bet at that price. I can see one of the outsiders running into the frame and Realt Dubh makes plenty of appeal at 25/1, with the current 'dead' eight runners ensuring three places.
Best Lay:
With Finian's Rainbow likely to be up there from the start and given that he travels so well through his races, he's sure to be in contention turning for home, and that is when I will be hitting Betfair's lay button.
Best bookmaker offer?
Bookmakers are falling over themselves at this time of year to attract your money and one of the best account opening offers is the £100 free matched bet offered by Paddy Power. Stick it on Sizing Europe.
Where to watch?
bet365 are showing the Champion Chase as part of their live streaming service. Simply place a bet of at least £0.50 pence (£0.25 pence each-way) and click on the video icon next to the race.
