Introduced in 2005, the Ryanair Chase over 2m5f has proved to be a race for course specialists. All five previous winners had won previously at Cheltenham, and all five had won or been placed in either the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cup.

Victor Chandler are offering their new customers a free £100 bet on the 2010 Cheltenham Festival - sign up with firm here.

Those are the two races to concentrate on then and POQUELIN, winner of the Boylesports in December and runner-up in the Paddy Power, despite being unsuited by the heavy ground, thoroughly deserves to be favourite at around the 4/1 mark. He might have won the latter race had he been ridden closer to the pace, but a combination of the ground and doubts over his stamina for the 2m5f trip meant that Ruby Walsh rode a patience race on him that day, only creeping into contention between the last two fences. In the end, he was beaten just four and a half lengths by the winner, Tranquil Sea, who will be 2lb worse off at Cheltenham.

On his next start in the Boylesports, with his stamina proven and on slightly better ground, he was ridden with less constraint and from three out there was only going to be one winner. I marked him down for this race after that performance and my confidence in his chances was boosted when the runner-up, Razor Royale, won the Racing Post Chase last Saturday. I also like the fact he has been rested since as he was over the top when flopping in this race last season.

As a result, Paul Nicholls has a fresh horse to go to war with and I get the distinct impression he fancies him strongly for this. We know he goes on soft ground but it’s a case of the drier the better for him in the next couple of weeks and it’s encouraging to hear the going at Cheltenham is currently good to soft after all the recent rain we've had. Providing the ground doesn’t deteriorate too much, he must have a cracking chance and he could end up being one of the best-backed horses of the meeting.

The Irish will no doubt fancy their horse, Tranquil Sea (9/2 Coral), to confirm the Paddy Power form, and even more so after his smooth success in the Newlands Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday. That would have put him spot on for Cheltenham and he must go there with every chance. I don’t think his chances are ground dependant either as he ran OK in the Jewson at last year's Festival when the ground was riding good and he's a better horse this season.

Barbers Shop (6/1 Paddy Power) must also come into the reckoning as he will appreciate coming back in trip after being campaigned unsuccessfully over further: patently failed to stay 3m2f in last season's Gold Cup and faded badly in the King George over 3m to finish a distant third to Kauto Star. However, I just wonder whether he is a horse without a trip as it’s a while since he got his head in front and always seems to find one to beat him.

Of the rest, last year’s Ryanair third, Schindlers Hunt (12/1 bet365), won't be far away. He’s already shown his well-being by taking the same placing behind Joncol and Gold Cup candidate Cooldine in the Hennessy at Leopardstown last month. Again, good ground suits him ideally.

Planet Of Sound (12/1 Skybet) will have to jump better to stand any chance. He made several mistakes when third in last season’s Arkle and was an early casualty in the Ascot Chase last time out. A bigger threat could be J'y Vole (14/1 Coral), who was most impressive when winning a Grade 2 contest at Gowran Park last time and gets the valuable mares' allowance.

However, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that either Poquelin or Tranquil Sea will be crossing the line in front, with preference for the former at 9/2 NRNB with Ladbrokes. The price is nothing special but once the hordes of Ruby Walsh fans get stuck in on the day, I can see him going off at 7/2 or shorter, so it's worth diving in now.

Recommended Bet:

Poquelin 2pts @ 9/2 NRNB Ladbrokes