Key Trends:
- Aged seven – four winners from four runnings
- Top-two finish last time out
- Finished in the top four on all completed starts over fences
- No more than one win over fences
- Won over at least 2m4f
A fiendishly difficult handicap to solve and only four year’s trends to go on, but thankfully Paul Nicholls comes to the rescue with CHAPOTURGEON.
Nicholls doesn’t have a great record in this race, nor with his handicap chasers at the festival overall, but that is partly because his runners tend to be quite exposed and therefore have their share of weight. Chapoturgeon, on the other hand, is regarded by his trainer to be well-treated on a mark of 134 after just three runs over fences, the latest when routing some fair rivals at Doncaster and, while this race will represent a different test, he looks a fair bet at 7/1 (William Hill).
Northern Alliance (8/1 Totesport) is trained by Tony Martin, who knows how to get one ready for a big handicap, and this eight-year-old has taken really well to fences. After winning his first two starts, he was still in contention and travelling well in a Grade 1 chase at Fairyhouse next time after which he was given a break of two and a half months before returned to action over 2m at Navan last month. He’ll strip fitter for that run and will be suited by this longer trip, so he must go well despite having 11st 4lb to carry
Last year’s Coral Cup winner, Naiad Du Misselot (10/1 Stan James), is an interesting contender as he appears to have been laid out for this race by his trainer Ferdy Murphy, who won this race with L’Antartique in 2007. Providing the ground doesn't dry out too much, he should make a bold bid for back-to-back festival success.
Of the rest, Slash And Burn could go well at a big price – 28/1 best-priced with bet365. On the form of his second to Massini’s Maguire at Ascot in November, he looks nicely handicapped, but not as well-handicapped as Chapoturgeon, who can show his rivals a clean pair of heels (or should that be hooves?!).
Recommended Bet:
Chapoturgeon 2pts @ 7/1 William Hill