How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top World Hurdle trends?
1. Aged six to eight - nine winners in the last 10 runnings
Nine-year-old Powerstation has been nibbled at in the ante post market but he's older than the average winner.
2. Six to 16 hurdle runs - 9/10
Both Kasbah Bliss (21 runs) and Blazing Bailey (22) would be more experienced than the average winner of this race - first-time winners average 10 runs.
3. Not out of the first four all season - 9/10
Big Buck's, who unseated his rider in the Hennessy, falls down on this count, as does Blazing Bailey.
4. No more than four runs since August - 9/10
Both Lough Derg and Powerstation have been too 'busy' this season with six runs each.
5. Top two finish last time out - 9/10
On this basis, we can rule out several entries including Blazing Bailey, Fair Along and Mobaasher.
6. Won or placed at previous festival - 8/10
Neither Big Buck's or Punchestowns have been placed at the Festival, although they've both won at the track.
7. Pre-race RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 164 - 8/10
Strictly on the ratings, neither Blazing Bailey, Lough Derg or Mobaasher are good enough.
Conclusion:
Several of this year's entries score highly, but the one who scores a perfect seven out of seven is Irish raider Catch Me (33/1 Skybet). He has looked better than ever this season, but didn't convince that he had the necessary stamina for this race when all-out to hold Whatuthink at Leopardstown over Christmas. Only if the ground was fast would he stand any sort of chance and he may run in the Champion Hurdle instead.
Several winners of this race had either won or been placed previously, which bodes well for last year's second Kasbah Bliss (11/4 Blue Square), although it's a major concern that he's already had 21 runs over hurdles, while Punchestowns (3/1 Victor Chandler) lacks previous Festival form. Still, lack of such experience didn't stop his stablemate Bacchanal winning in 2000 and, like Punchestowns, he finished second in the Cleeve Hurdle on his prep run.
Cleeve Hurdle winner Big Buck's (5/1 Ladbrokes) also lacks any Festival form but that's of little concern as he's a dual course winner. Apart from Fair Along (12/1 Ladbrokes), it's hard to get excited about anything else as it is nine years since the winner traded bigger than 14/1 at this stage.
