Even at the start of this month, the Triumph Hurdle (1.30) looked an open heat with nothing having taken a firm grip on the market, and there are still plenty who could make an impression.

The Favourite
Alaivan just about deserves to be favourite (4/1 best with bet365) on his overall hurdles form and the fact he was near Group class over middle distances on the flat. After making an eye-catching winning debut at Gowran Park in December, he went off at 4/9 for a Leopardstown Grade 2 just 15 days later but, having been taken on for the lead, he had no answer to Carlito Brigante (rated 36lb inferior on the flat), who won by 11 lengths. However, he was back on song at Fairyhouse in February, winning by an easy 17 lengths. Certainly, he looks Ireland's best chance in a race they haven't done particularly well in (just four winners in the past 20 years).

The Dangers
On Leopardstown form, Carlito Brigante (5/1 William Hill) must have a great chance of finishing in front of Alaivan again. He travelled supremely well that day, suggesting there was no fluke about the win, and he was again impressive in his prep, the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh, staying on strongly for a six-length win. Good ground would be ideal for him.

The home challenge is headed by Paul Nicholl's Advisor (8/1 Betfred), who travelled well when winning at Ascot last time and clearly stays the trip well, although the form of his two wins doesn't add up to much. Soldatino (9/1 Stan James) has less experience after a solitary run in this country over hurdles (a runaway victory at Kempton on soft ground) but could be the better horse. He was a bit of a tearaway in France but his trainer Nicky Henderson, a master with juveniles, has taught him to settle and that could be the making of him.

Secant Star (9/1 Ladbrokes) is a similar type to Soldatino in that he's ex-French and has looked good since being switched to his current trainer Willie Mullins. He is considered more of a chasing type, however, and those sorts don't tend to win the Triumph. A similar comment applies to Me Voici, a gorgeous looking horse who is a future Gold Cup winner if I've ever seen one. His participation depends on rain and lots of it.

Longshot
Those looking for an outsider could do worse than Westlin' Winds (14/1 William Hill), winner of his first two starts before finding the smart Mille Chief (who was getting 7lb) too good at Kempton last time.

Key Stat
Eleven of the past 12 winners had been 'first past the post' last time out and, since the introduction of the Fred Winter, all five winners have come from the first four in the betting.

Verdict
Shocks are becoming rarer in this race and I'm convinced the finish will be fought out by those at the head of the market. The key factor is the ground which, if the forecast is correct, could be riding softer than the current good to soft, good in places. That would be a serious negative for Carlito Brigante but a positive for Alaivan and Soldatino - I don't think Advisor is quite good enough. I've a slight doubt over Alaivan's ability to handle the hustle and bustle of the festival, so I'm going to put my faith in that man Henderson getting another tune out of SOLDATINO, who looks a solid investment at 9/1 with Stan James.