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Coral Cup Tips & Betting Advice

Key Trends:

  • Won between 2m2f and 2m6f over hurdles - nine winners in 10 runnings
  • Top-six finish last time out - 9/10
  • Scored at class 3 or higher - 9/10
  • Carried no more than 11st - 8/10
  • No more than 16 runs over hurdles - 8/10
  • Not run for at least 39 days - 8/10
  • No more than four runs that season - 7/10

One of the toughest races to solve all week, but the above trends help narrow down the field and it's significant that Lough Derg (25/1 William Hill) runs here under top weight as that will ensure that plenty are out of the handicap. While horses with less than 11st have fared best, no winner in the last 10 runnings was more than 2lb out of the handicap so it might pay to concentrate on those horses in the 10st to 10st 13lb weight range.

The current ante post favourite Aigle D'Or (6/1 Coral) is set to carry 10st 8lb, has had just two runs this season, and is a fresh horse having not run for 81 days, so he has plenty going for him. However, his odds are plenty short enough for a race of this nature and, with luck in-running essential, it's no coincidence that only one favourite and one joint-favourite have obliged in the race's 15-year history.

The Irish will tell you that Psycho is a 'good thing' and his trainer Tony Martin landed a huge gamble in this race with Xenophon in 2003. Psycho nearly landed one himself when a head-second in last season's County Hurdle, which he surely would have won had he been ridden more positively. The concern with him, though, is the trip of 2m5f, which he's trying for the first time and his trainer hasn't exactly been firing in the winners of late, so he looks more of a lay to me.

You could make a case for several of these but the one I'm drawn to is the Lucinda Russell-trained MIRAGE DORE (16/1 Victor Chandler), who scrapes into the handicap proper with 10st. That's 10lb less than what he carried to victory over course and distance back in October when beating the current World Hurdle fourth-favourite Fair Along in a good time, which gives the form a solid look. He's been off the track since but he was defying a 150 day absence last time, so is clearly best fresh, and he fits all the above trends.

Interestingly, Peter Scudamore, who is assistant to Russell, put him up as his nap of the meeting at one of the Cheltenham preview meetings, which suggests he's been going well at home. And don't be put off by the fact that he'll be ridden by Rose Dobbin as she's been on-board for all his wins.

Recommended Bet:

Mirage Dore 1pt each way @ 16/1 Victor Chandler NRNB


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Coral Cup Tips & Betting Advice

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