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Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Tips

Key Trends:

  • Aged seven to ten – 10/10
  • Ran over at least three miles last time out - 9/10
  • Won a handicap chase – 9/10
  • Finished in first three in either or both of last two starts – 8/10
  • Won over at least three miles – 7/10

Traditionally, this is one of the least competitive festival handicaps, but that doesn’t make finding the winner any easier! In the last 10 runnings, there have been winners at 40/1, 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice). Still, there have also been two winning favourites in that time, and horses with SP’s of 12/1 and under have won 22 of the past 34 renewals.

Last year’s winner, High Chimes, was just outside that range at 14/1 and is about the same price this time, but runs off a 12lb higher mark this time, which will make life tougher.

There doesn’t seem to be much market confidence behind the Tony Martin-trained Aggie’s Lad – 121 with Victor Chandler, but as big as 21 on Betfair. Nor his Newbay Prop (14/1 Paddy Power) for that matter. As big handicap winners from this stable tend to be well-backed, that has to be taken as a negative. Besides, the Irish haven’t won this race since Greasepaint in 1983!

In which case, the two to concentrate on are the two market leaders, Poker De Sivola (15/2 Coral) and SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT (10/1 Victor Chandler). The former is on a losing run of 10 but was in the process of running a blinder when taking a crashing fall two out in a Grade 2 chase at Wetherby last time out. As he would have almost certainly finished ahead of higher-rated rivals that day, connections will have been relieved when his handicap mark was left unchanged and his trainer, Ferdy Murphy, who has win this race twice before, can be relied upon to have done plenty of schooling since.

However, he needs to turn around earlier form with Shouldhavehadthat, who beat him a neck at Newbury back in December. That race was over 2m6f and the runner-up is 1lb better off, so they should in theory dead-heat, but the winner was staying on really strongly, shaping as though he will relish the extra three furlongs here. Tough and progressive, he’ll be ridden by a crack amateur in Sam Waley-Cohen, who’s already ridden a festival winner for Shouldhavehadthat’s trainer Nicky Henderson, who has himself won this race three times.

Recommended Bet:

Shouldhavehadthat 2pts each way @ 10/1 Victor Chandler

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Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Tips

Traditionally, this is one of the least competitive festival handicaps, but that doesn’t make finding the winner any easier!

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